SECTION

MACROECONOMICS & ECONOMIC EQUILIBRUM

Room 2621

Chairmen:Prof. Ioan Eugen TIGANESCU PhD
                 Prof. George Hanzi FAGHIURA PhD, AUSTRIA
Secretary:Assistant Professor Ramona PAUN

1. Economic Development and Structural Change
Authors: Ioan Eugen Tiganescu
Department of Economic Cybernetics,
Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest
George Hanzi Faghiura
AUSTRIA

        Economic theory, as will as empirical orientated research, have been facing a lot of difficulties in explaining the national and world economics behaviour. The integration of economy, society, technologies and environment into a single system was a successful way to get through. This approach is the core of so called Structural economics which is a conceptual framework for analyzing the relationships in terms of industrial sectors, occupations and households, and resources and wastes. From methodological point of view, the basic statistical information comes from National accounts and Social accounting matrices.
        The principal use of Structural economics is the evaluation of alternative scenarios about future path for the economy. Lifestyle is a powerful organizing concept for describing the structure of economy and for building scenarios about alternative option, mainly because it provides a concrete focus for qualitative and quantitative description of the linkage between economic activities and some important aspects of cultural and social life.
        In the paper the authors have applied these statistical instruments to Romanian economy in order to analyze the effects of government policies not only on growth but also on the distribution of income among the different categories of households and other institutions.

2. Is the New Economy a Convergence Model?
Author: Paul Ghita Tanase
Department of Economics,
Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest

3. Monetary Equilibrium Considerations
Authors: Alexandru Tasnadi, Bogdan Tasnadi
Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest

        The authors state some hypothesis necessary to build the monetary equilibrium equations at macroeconomic level. Certain solutions of empirical analysis on examples of Romanian economics are suggested.

4. Investing in Education in the Content of Knowledge & Information-Based Society
Author:Marta-Cristina Suciu
Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest
        Investing in people and skills is a main objective of the Europe Initiative. The European Union set as a priority objective for Europe to become a competitive and dynamic knowledge-based economy. A special attention is given to the development of pro-active strategies and policies for the Central European EU accession candidate countries including Romania.
        The paper focuses on investments in education. It reveals the implications of the global revolution in knowledge for the development of a knowledge & information-based society. The process of globalization together with Information and Communications Technologies (ICT) are creating new opportunities for growth and sustainable development in the new economy.
        A well-educated population contributes to create, share, use and manage knowledge as a critical requisite for a country to participate in the global knowledge economy. A network of universities, research centers, private enterprises and community groups can facilitate the effective communication, dissemination and processing of knowledge and information. Investing in education is crucial as it is suggested in the 2000 World Cultural Report: When ever possible, invest in human capital!.
        Key words:
        Knowledge-based society / knowledge & information-based society; Investment in human capital; Investment in education; Intellectual capital; Competitive intelligence; E-learning; New economics; Intangible capital; Global revolution in knowledge & global knowledge economy; Knowledge management & the management of intangible capital.

5. Macroeconomic Analysis of Political Component for Country Risk
Author:Bacescu Marius
Department of Economic Cybernetics,
Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest

        Lucrarea se concentreaza pe principalele elemente ale componentei politice a riscului de tara. Se porneste de la idea ca practic nu exista doua tipuri identice si ca este foarte dificil de facut comparatii intre tari din punct de vedere politic, fie si numai datorita dificultatilor de cuantificare.
        Dupa o prezentare a dimensiunilor istorice ale riscului politic, se face o analiza a structurilor politice si a elementelor esentiale ce reflecta profilul structurii statului cum ar fi: clasele sociale, institutiile statului, personalitatile conducatoare si mecanismele de control (sprijinul popular, represiunea, coruptia si influenta pozitiei).
        In continuare sunt prezentate caile principale prin care factorul politic poate influenta riscul sau veranitate sau riscul de transfer, iar in final sunt analizati factorii politici externi ce pot prezenta interes pentru analiza acestui risc, cum ar fi instabilitatea politica din zona, tarile cu importanta strategica (geopolitica), apartenenta la grupari politice si instabilitatea economica provocata din exterior.
        Cuvinte cheie:
        Risc de tara, risc politic, risc de guvernanitate, risc de transfer, structuri politici, clase sociale, institutii ale statului, personalitati conducatoare, mecanisme de control, factori politici externi,armata, biserica, sindicatele, banca centrala, coruptie, opozitie.

6. The approaches to Sustainable Development
Author: Catalin Huidumac
Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest

        Mankind’s relationship with the environment has gone through several stages, culminating in the rapid material intensive growth pattern of the twentieth century which adversely affected natural resources in many ways. The initial reaction to such environmental damage was a reactive approach characterized by increased clean-up activities. Most recently mankind’s attitude towards the environment has evolved to encompass the more proactive design of project and policies that will help anticipate and minimize environmental degradation. In this context, the world is currently  exploring the concept of sustainable development, an approach that will permit continuing improvements in the present quality of life at a lower intensity of resource use.
        It is possible to identify three different concepts of sustainable development: the economic, the ecological and the socio cultural.
        The economic approach to sustainability is based on the maximum flow of income that could be generated while at least maintaining the stock of assets which yield these benefits.
        The ecological view of sustainable development focuses on the stability of biological and physical system.
        The social cultural concept of sustainability seeks to maintain the stability of social and cultural system, including the reduction of destructive conflicts.
        This paper also explains the key role of environmental economics in facilitating the more effective incorporation of environmental concerns into development decision making.

7. Macroeconomic Analysis of Financial-Economic Component for Country Risk
Author:Angelica Bacescu, Carbunaru
Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest

        Lucrarea evidentiaza complexitatea sistemului de elemente ce trebuiesc luate in considerare atunci cand se analizeaza componenta economica financiare a riscului riscului de tara.
        In primul rand, sunt luate in considerare influentele ce le exercita politica guvernamentala, rolul economic al guvernului, strategiile de preturi, prioritatile investitionale si structura financiare a tarii.
        In al doilea rand, se analizeaza modul cum este influentat riscul de tara de politica macroeconomica, de capacitatea de obtinere a fondurilor valutare precum si de nivelul datoriei externe.
        In al treilea rand este analizata influenta lichiditatilor si fluxurilor banesti aspura riscului de tara, luandu-se in considerare faprul ca lichiditatea tarii este o masura a vulnerabilitatii acesteia precum si faptul ca activele si pasivele tarii pot avea un rol destul de important in dimensiunea acestui risc.
        Cuvinte cheie:
        Analiza macroeconomica, risc de tara, politici guvernamentale, rolul economic al guvernului, strategii de preturi, prioritati investitionale, structura financiara, politica macroeconomica, programe de stabilizare macroeconomica, capacitate de obtinere a fondurilor valutare, dotare externa, povara dotarii externe, capacitatea de suprataxe a dotarii externe, lichiditati, fluxuri banesti, vulnerabitate, active, pasive.

8. The Role of the Banking Sector in Sustaining Economic Growth
Author: Monica Dudian
Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest

        In many countries banks are the primary form of financial intermediary, the largest repository for the public’s savings, the main source of credit to firms and the key actor in the payments system.
         Banking sector in transition economies of Eastern Europe have experienced major transformations throughout the 1990s. While some countries have been successful in eliminating underlying distortions and restructuring their financial sectors, in some cases banking sectors remain underdeveloped and the rates of financial intermediation continue to be low.
        This paper analyses the impact of banking sectors changes on economic growth in Romania in the latest 10 years.

9. Simulation Trend of the Main Indicators for an Economy in Transition
Authors: Ion Dobre, Nora Chiriţă
Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest

        The economic process that took place recently in Eastern Europe determine the apparition of a new paradigm in simulation model: construction of macroeconomic models for economies in transition.
        This paper propose a model of an inflationary economy at disequilibria, which has the possibility to adapt at rapid changing that take place in a real economy.
        The model permit a simultaneous result of output, income and the inflation rate.

10. A Forecast Model of Economic and Social Development Applied in Territorial Profile
Authors: Ion Dobre, Adrian Bădescu, Nora Chirita
Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest

        Economic and social disequilibria in territorial profile requires medium and long term strategies in order to diminish their echarts.
        In this paper we propose to determine, using a simulation model, different patterns of evolution for Romanian economic and social development on historical areas.

11. Quantification of Research and Development Spendings Using an Input-Output Model
Authors: Adrian Bădescu, Ion Dobre
Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest

        Economic development intensity is determined by the influention of direct and indirect factors.
        The paper proposes a new model of analyze and quantification for research and development spendings using backward and forward multipliers based on input-output model.
        It is illustrated the link between multipliers and the procedure of separate their induced effects.

12. Economic Cycles in Romanian Transition
Authors: Mihai Roman, Monica Roman
Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest

        Analyzing statistical data for last ten years in Romania we see that it was an economic complete business cycle. Romanian’s economy passed over the ’99th depression phase and now is in recovery phase, characterized by rise of GNP, investments and exports and fall of unemployment. 

13. Fiscal System and Sustainable Growth
Author: Razvan Necula
Ministry of Finance

14. Expert System for Agriculture Consultancy
Author: Lidia Florentina Mesca
C.N.V.M. (Consiliul Naţional de Valori Mobiliare)

        In stategia reformei agriculturii rolul consultantei agricole creste, iar numarul expertilor care pot ajuta in teritoriu comunitatile agricole nu este intotdeauna suficient, motiv pentru care apare nevoia inlocuirii lor, macar partial, pe domenii de specialitate, cu utilizarea unui sistem expert de consultanta agricola, prin care expertiza umana este simultana pe calculator.
        In aceasta lucrare s-a incercat abordarea unui domeniu nou pentru utilizarea sistemelor expert consultanta agricola. Sistemul expert pentru consultanta agricola presupune o activitate de conlucrarea cu apecialistii din domeniu zonarii productiei agricole-vegetale din A.S.A.S. Acest sistem se doreste un instrument de lucru in sprijinul expertilor din cadrul centrelor agricole si al Oficiilor Judetene de Consultanta Agricola.
        Desigur ca acest sistem expert nu va putea inlocui total expertiza unama (a exportului agricol) dar va crea un sprijin pentru activitatea de consultanta. Pe masura utilizarii unui asemenea sistem baza de cunostinte se poate completa prin preluarea cazurilor concrete introduse.

15. Theories Models about the Utilization of the Factors Market
Author: Stroescu Mihai Alexandru
High School Electronica Industriala, Bucharest

        The paper draws the attention especially to the qualitative factors of human resources, putting in evidence some studies that have been done in the last half of the century, about the close connections between the economic efficiency and the education degree concerning the assimilation of a healthy life style by each one in the society.
        The Objective was to study from a multidisciplinary perspective the correlation between the economic growth and the investment into the human capital, in the conditions specific to the Romanian Economy.
        Materials and Methods. We have begun with a thoroughgoing study concerning the role of the factors market under the classic conception and then we have continued with the study about the neo-factors. We have followed, with the proper attention, the special importance of the human resources, as a determinant factor in the producing process of goods and services. The quantity and quality of the labor forces has been studied through the processing of the statistic data and through the mathematic modeling. Studying the evolution of education interest in our country during the years 1989-1999, we see a 17.4% growth in the weight of the students in the population of 19/23 years old, but also the reducing of the weight of the high-school students. Concerning the health aspects, we see a growth of the smokers and drugs consumers, emphasizing the danger of increasing morbidity rate of the population from our country.
        Conclusion. Because the attention focuses on the masses and not on the individual, the efforts are drawn to create a proper socio-administrative environment. Even the issues of the education, health and esthetics values draw some attention, there is also necessary a conscious of their role in the living standards growing. There are to be done concrete programs to stimulate the whole population in order to give the right attention to the educative progresses and to adopt a healthy life style.

16. Simulation Models of Social Policies and the Estimation of their Effects
Author: PhD Candidate Dan Ghergut

17. Did the Globalization Increase the World Inequality?
Author: Iulian Tanase

        Globalization is a process that has been ongoing, albeit not in a linear fashion, over a long period of time. What if we had a huge world economy, with a single currency and no barriers to trade, capital movements or migration? Would this economy be far more unequal than the world we live in?
        This paper argues that the impact of globalization or, more correctly, economic integration on world inequality has been very different from what is usually thought. The nations that gained the most from globalization are not the richest but those poor ones that changed their policies to exploit it. Globalization has different effects on participants and non-participants. While there is a clear income convergence among countries that integrate more fully into the global economy, there is also a clear divergence between these and those who elect to remain insulated from global markets. Where the non-participants were actively excluded, the policies yielding that inegalitarian result can hardly be called liberal, but globalization cannot be made to take the blame.

18. Combining Forecast Methods
Author: Diana Serafimescu

        Starting for the diversity of the methods and forecast techniques, the work presents a few methods of combining them, in order to minimize the errors. This variance-covariance method, social covelation method, regression method and generalization of them ore taken into considerations.

19. Structure Trends of Budgetary Expenses
Author: Radu Stroe
Academy of Economic Studies
Bucharest, Romania

        Reforming of the Romanian economics and relaunching of the economic growth for the future European integration is reflected into the average term developing strategy of the Romanian economy. The strategy, referring to the budgetary policy afferent to the mentioned objective, outlines the rationalization of the budgetary options and the growth of their operational efficiency. The structural framework of the respective objective is defined by the priority of education and research, health and national defence, in order to modernize Romania, according to the requirements of an informational economy whose apogee to be the educational capital.

SECTION

MICROECONOMICS

Room 2618

Chairmen: Prof. DUMITRU MARIN PhD
Senior Lecturer STELIAN STANCU PhD
Secretary: Teaching Assistant FLORIN G. MAICAN PhD Candidate

1. The Analysis of Inefficiency Scores in Romanian Banking System.
Authors: Dumitru Marin, Florin G. Maican
Department of Economic Cybernetics,
Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest

        In the last years banks have had to operate in an increasingly competitive environment. How banks will be affected by the increased competitive pressures depends in part on how efficiently they are. We examine the productive efficiency of a sample of Romanian banks over the 1997 to 2000 time period derived from both stochastic and linear programming frontiers.
        The goal of the analysis is to identify the key determinants of X-inefficiency in Romanian Banking System. This examination allows the robustness of results across methods to be compared. We find that the patterns of the scores across banks are similar and calculated programming efficiency scores are larger than those estimated using a stochastic frontier.
        The larger bank companies tend to operate closer to their respective efficient frontier than the smaller banks. Average frontier X-inefficiencies decline over time suggesting that banks responded to the increased competition.

2. Efficiency Analysis in High School Education in Romania.
Authors: Roxana Ciumara, Angela Galupa, Dumitru Marin, Liliana Spircu
Department of Economic Cybernetics,
Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest

        A number of studies have considered the possibility that technical inefficiency exists in public schools. These studies have used a variety of empirical techniques to identify technically efficient schools and to compare them with technically inefficient schools. In this paper we attempt to analyze the efficiency of 95 public high schools grouped in theoretical and technological high schools - from Bucharest, for school year 1999-2000. Here we will regard each high school as comparable production unit, producing education. We employ both parametric and non-parametric approaches for computing the efficiency scores. Results obtained after applying different models were consequently compared. As this study will reveal, even though the curricula for high school education have changed after 1989, the most efficient units remain the same as before. Before 1989, what we call theoretical high schools had the best quotation, and so it is now. The efficiency scores for these high schools are better than the ones obtained for technological high schools, as we expected, result that we got from both the parametric and non-parametric approaches

3. Hazard Moral and Incentive Contracts.
Authors: Georg Hanzi Faghiura, Austria
 Florin G. Maican
 Department of Economic Cybernetics,
 Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest

        In this article we will explain moral hazard by taking up hidden knowledge. Information is complete in moral hazard games, but with hidden knowledge, the agent observes a move of Nature after the game begins. It is easy to observe that information is symmetric at the time of contracting, but becomes asymmetric later. Agents are identical at the beginning of the game from the principal's point of view. They develop private type’s midway through it, which on what they have seen.
        We consider Holmstrom and Milgrom's [1987] as an examination of static contracts rather than dynamic contracts. Holmstrom and Milgrom paper's is fundamental in explaining the simplicity of real world contracts.

4. Insurance and Risk Aversion.
Authors: Ion Dobre, Anamaria Aldea,
Department of Economic Cybernetics,
Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest

        The most optimal control problems in economy are so complicated that we can only expect to obtain some qualitative characterizations of the optimal solution. Extending the basic optimal control results, there will be a discussion based on additional types of terminal (transverity) conditions. Some intuitive arguments are given in order to determine the correct transversality conditions, along with some economic examples.

5. The supply of a public a good having incomplete information.
Author: Stelian Stancu
Department of Economic Cybernetics,
 Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest

        Goods can be divided in two categories: we will call exclusive a good if it is relatively easy to prohibit a person from using this it, while a nonexclusive implies that it is basically impossible(or very expensive) to prohibit a person from using it.
        Furthermore, a good is called non-rival if the use of an additional item of the good implies a zero marginal production cost.
        A good is public (pure) if it is nonexclusive. The public goods are usually non-rival, too, but this is not a necessary condition. Private goods are different from the public ones through the two qualities.

6. Multiple criteria decision making used to design a system at microeconomic level - the products assembly line.
Authors: Carmen Hartulari, Crisan Albu, Angela Galupa
Department of Economic Cybernetics,
 Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest

        The globalization process of the economy, the fast advancements of production technology, the customization of product components, the dynamic evolution of market also the multiple criteria decision making aspects taken into account to evaluate the selection of suppliers offer or to quantify the performances of the assembly line all these factors ask for new ways to design, to model and search for efficient solution.
        In those conditions, it is necessary to redefine the synchronization problem of assembly line, considering the specific elements of the line, of the market and multiple criteria decision making aspects that occur in its design.
        The authors propose an interactive heuristic procedure, combining the multiple criteria decision making decision algorithm’s with interactive learning assembly algorithms. These algorithms are also using the concept of utility, to model the consumers’ preferences.
        The dynamic evolution of the product market is taken into account in the proposed solution through the interactive and iterative procedure of changing the value of elements characterizing the problem.

7. Theory of the opposite selection.
Author: Stelian Stancu
Department of Economic Cybernetics,
Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest

        Besides the elementary shapes of economic relations: a contract being signed, the parties making the decision founded on their preferences according to the contract terms, economic life is evidently more complicated, because it gathers economic agents that have been collaborating for shorter or longer periods of time.
        Taking into consideration the temporal dimension of changes was lately an object of a reach enough literature, in the theory of contracts.
        After the presentation of the key concepts of pledge and renegotiating which lie on the bottom of dynamic contracts theory, we are going to study the situation in which the signed contracts take into consideration all variables that are or can become pertinent. We say that these contracts are completes.

8. Applied econometrics in General Equilibrium Theory.
Author: Sorin Vlad
Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest

        We briefly review the theory of general equilibrium relevant for applied general equilibrium analysis. We sketch proofs of existence, and discuss in detail the inclusion of such policy instruments as taxes and tariffs for which a modeling of government behavior is also required.
        Policy makers daily confront the need to make decisions on all manner of both major and minor policy matters that affect such issues as the intersectoral allocation of resources and the distribution income. Techniques such as those presented here can, in our opinion, help policy makers by making explicit the implications of alternative courses of action within a framework broadly consistent with that currently accepted by many microeconomic theorists.
        Although model results are not precise owing to data and other problems, they nevertheless provide a vehicle for generating initial null hypotheses on the impacts of policy changes where none previously existed.

9. Option Pricing with Transactions Costs.
Author: Sorin Maruster
Northwestern University, SUA

        The literature on options pricing with transactions costs is abundant in highly specialized mathematical methods from probability theory to optimal stochastic control. The aim of this paper is to present the underlying mathematical and non-mathematical principles that have driven the research in this area with an emphasis on the latter aspects. The mathematics will intervene only when the explicit use of it constitutes a fundamental need for understanding the issue. The overall organization of the paper tries to follow the development of the topic from the basics to the latest sophisticated theories employed.
        The continuous-time replication argument for valuation of derivatives breaks down in the presence of transactions costs as these imply infinite trading amounts. Although ignored at the beginning, this aspect of market imperfection has received increasingly attention as tests of the initial Black-Scholes model indicate consistent deviations of the observed options prices from their theoretical values. In the presence of transactions costs a bid-ask spread of the option price arises so the pricing procedure concentrates on finding theoretical bounds for this price. The research has concentrated on two major directions: the replication argument with the presence of the transaction costs using either a discrete version of the model or a continuous-time model but with flexible or restricted trading strategy in order to avoid the infinite trading trap and the utility maximization theory.

10. The future of e-commerce systems: an efficiency analysis.
Author: Ionut Oprea
Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest

        This paper examines the relation between prices in conventional stores and on the Internet. The main results from the theoretical analysis are that i) we expect a discrete fall in prices in conventional stores as the share of the population with Internet-access reaches a critical level, ii) the relation between prices depends on convenience costs of shopping in regular stores as well as on transport and navigation costs for goods bought over Internet, and iii) retailers who only sell through Internet have lower on-line prices than retailers who also sell through conventional stores. The empirical section employs a rich data set covering the Swedish markets for books and CDs. Prices of these goods are on average 15 percent lower on Internet, but if a single item is bought, transport costs will make it as expensive to buy over Internet as in a regular store (if a basket of goods is bought it is some 10 percent cheaper on Internet since transport costs are fixed). There is firm support for that retailers who only sell over Internet have lower on-line prices.

11. The Investment Banks (and Their Potential Role in the Romanian Capital Market)
Author: Bogdan Mustata
The Faculty of Economic Cybernetics, Statistics and Informatics
Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest

        There are no genuine investment banks in Romania. The paper deals with the problem of the investment banking services in our country. First, there is a description of the activities of a classic investment-banking firm, and the American model is used in this approach. Furthermore, the analysis of the current Romanian legislation, the OU28/March 2002 to be precise, shows that there are important steps being made in the direction of revising the approach on investment banking services.

SECTION

INFORMATION & DECISIONAL PROCESS

Room 2416

Chairmen: Professor EMIL SCARLAT, PhD
Professor NICULAE MIHĂITĂ PhD
Secretary: Senior Lecturer VIRGINIA MĂRĂCINE, PhD

1. Market Mechanisms Modeling for Agent-Based-Models (ABM) Design
Author: Emil Scarlat
Department of Economic Cybernetics,
Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest

        General equilibrium theory, a microeconomic framework, has recently been successfully adapted for and used in computational multiagent systems in many application domains. Market mechanisms play a central role as a coordination tool in such as multiagent systems.
        In this paper we study two methods of market mechanisms modeling who are used for the coordination of competitive and speculative agents. The local interactions between agents give rise to macroeconomic regularities such as shared market protocols and behavioral norms that in turn feed back into the determination of local interactions. The result is a complicated dynamic system known as market mechanism.

2. Monetary Policy Strategy: International Experience
Authors: Emil Scarlat, Laura Calancia
EXIMBANK Romania

        Getting monetary policy right is crucial to the health of the economy. Overly expansionary monetary policy leads to high inflation, which decreases the efficiency of the economy and hampers economic growth.
        A central feature of monetary policy strategies in all countries is the use of a nominal anchor (a nominal variable that monetary policymakers use to tie down the price level such as the inflation rate, an exchange rate, or the money supply), as an intermediate target to achieve an ultimate goal such as price stability. It has to be examined the role of nominal anchor in promoting the price stability and three basic types of monetary policy strategy exchange rate targeting, monetary targeting and inflation targeting.
        Despite an excellent performance of a monetary policy, there is much to learn from international experience.
A nominal anchor keeps the price level from growing or falling too fast and thereby preserves the value of o country’s money. Thus, a nominal anchor of some sort is a necessary element in successful monetary policy strategies.
        A more subtle reason for a nominal anchor’s importance is that it can limit the time - inconsistency problem in which monetary policy conducted on a discretionary, day-by-day, basis leads to poor long run outcomes.

3. Statistical and Financial Concepts Underlying The VAR’s Dimensions of Derivatives
Authors: Robert Wolf
Department of Finance, University of Wisconsin - La Crosse, USA
Laura Calancia

        Derivatives instruments allow users to disaggregate risks, to bear those they can manage and transfer those they are unwilling to bear. By providing controlled exposure to financial risks, they have created the impetus for modern risk management methods. The article focuses on the characteristics of derivatives relevant for computing value at risk.
        Derivatives range from simple building blocks such as linear contracts (forwards, futures, swaps) to complex products such as some structured notes or exotic options. Any asset with a derivative feature can be priced as the sum of various components.
        Forwards and futures can be decomposed into primitive building blocks to compute VaR. Linear VaR models adequately describe the risks of linear derivatives such as forwards and swaps and they can badly represent the risks of options because of the nonlinear nature. The risk of assets with option components must be modeled with higher order terms or alternatively simulation methods.
        A forward contract can be decomposed into constituent components to compute VaR. Risk arises from the exposure to each source of risk and from joint movements in sources of risk. The decompositions into exposures on different risk factors is the first step in the theory of particle finance. The second step is the reconstruction of total risk from individual components.
        For an option the major risk factor is the underlying asset price. The BS derivation showed that holding a call option is equivalent to holding a fraction of an underlying asset, where the fraction dynamically changes over time. This observation justifies the linear approximation for computing the VaR of a portfolio that includes derivatives such as options. Because options contracts are nonlinear functions of underlying risk factors their VaR cannot reliably be based on their delta only. The article presents an improved approximation to an option’s VaR based on the delta-gamma approximation.

4. Active-Passive Strategies in Portfolio Management
Author: Virginia Mărăcine
Department of Economic Cybernetics,
Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest

        If in the portfolio management we strictly adhere at the equilibrium models on the capital market, we will operate with investment passive strategies. In this case, if all the investors have similar expectations regarding the market evolutions, they will apply similar strategies at the same level of risk, and the results portfolios will have the exact same performance (revenue): any attempt of superior performance gain will be futile. In those conditions, many portfolios’ managers will attempt to apply more active strategies so that improve their portfolios’ performance. In this paper we will present some of these strategies.

5. Active Strategies in Portfolio Management Using The Derivatives
Author: Virginia Mărăcine
Department of Economic Cybernetics,
Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest

        The futures and options contracts could be used with success in implementing the active strategies in portfolio’s management. Those two derivatives, generally used for hedging, constitute useful tools in helping portfolio managers to modify the exposure at the capital market influences, optimal portfolio construction, and portfolio immunizing at different risk factors. This paper will deal with some methods used in the implementation of active portfolio’ management strategies through derivatives.

6. T.Qp.M Total Quality & Productivity Management from Theory to Practice
Author: Isaac Sheps
President TUBORG ROMANIA

        United Romanian Breweries Bereprod, which is known as TUBORG ROMANIA is a green field project with an initial investment of 55 M$ and an accumulated investment of 75 M$.
        U.R.B.B. is the most modern brewhouse in Europe was built in 13 months and realized the first brewing in December 1997. The company is part of Carlsberg Breweries group from
        Denmark and has a license to brew Carlsberg, Tuborg and Skol brands.
From the very first moment the process of implementing Total Quality & Productivity Management philosophy in the company was driving its essence from the company’s vision TO BE THE LEADER OF THE INTERNATIONAL AND PREMIUM QUALITY BEER BRANDS IN ROMANIA.
        The above mission accomplishment is based on three pillars: Quality, Internationality and Innovation.
        Quality & Productivity Management in the company is based on the strategic definition of quality. The strategic definition of quality defines four main stakeholders of each company: customers (internal and external), owners, employees and society, each having its own terms of quality expectations.
        To fulfill all those quality expectations (elaborated in that paper) the day-to-day activities include three main characteristics: focus on customers needs, management by facts, continuous improvement trough employees involvement.
        By U.R.B.B’s experience we will try to demonstrate that the big Romanian sculptor Brancusi was right in stating that Things are not difficult to be made what is difficult is putting ourselves in the mood to make them.

7. Onicescu Informational Statistics and Causal Interactions
Author: Niculae Mihaită
Department of Economic Statistics,
Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest

        The facilities created by the use of Onicescu Informational Statistics for identifying causal interactions are due to the symmetry of the calculus mode proper to the Onicescu’ informational energy simplicity. This paper develops new insights and statistical connections with varies socio-economic-problems.

8. Formal and Informal Statistics, Interactions and Relations in Marketing
Author: Niculae Mihaiţă

        In spite of its simplicity, the concept of relation was the corner stone for many authors of different professions arousing perspicacity and intelligence. What is a relation? Where is to be found? How and why is it achieved? The answers lie in the cobweb of its meanings.. Finally, what purpose does the investigation of such obscure concept serve in marketing? Maybe, the temptation to investigate the systems of structures and to interpret the structures of relations systems in turbomarketing.

9. A Tentative Economic Model for Pension Reform
Author: Eugen-Iulian Mihaiţă
Nottingham Trent University, Department of Economics and Politics, Great Britain

        In this paper we try to derive a model, which demonstrates the linkages and responsiveness of different sectors within the economy with respect to pension reform based on the sensitivity of pension systems to economic change.

10. Latin American Reforms and Developments in Central And Eastern Europe
Author: Eugen-Iulian Mihaită

        Many times CEE governments managing economic transition take as models Latin American experience. This paper deals with lessons from Latin American Pension reforms as examples or counterexamples in Central and Eastern Europe

11. The Impact of MIS on Business Practice
Author: Claudia Cârstea
Faculty of Economic Science, University George Baritiu”, Brasov, Romania

        Ever since MIS began to appear and be absorbed more widely into the corporate framework, anecdotal accounts have persisted of user dissatisfaction, particularly with the lack of systems responsiveness to user needs and the inappropriateness or tardiness of the information supplied. 
        The concern in Management Information Systems is the application of data-processing science to the modeling of organized human and business affairs encompassing many different kinds of enterprise and all levels and most functions within them. Without a strategy to manage the rapid change inherent in this field, systems are likely to suffer neglect or misuse, breeding user disillusionment.
        Natural systems tend to be essentially recursive, depending for internal control on the perception of change and the reactive behavior of various feedback mechanisms. The strength, longevity and resourcefulness of natural systems stem from their flexibility and tolerance of error and variability.
        A vital component in the analysis of prospective information systems must therefore include an attempt to discover the underlying dynamics of the system. Computer science will undoubtedly develop more of the technological tools and techniques that will allow tangible implementations of these models. The IT system must be innately versatile and adaptable. Systems development strategies will become evolutionary in nature adapting throughout the development cycle. The understanding of the behavioral dynamics and its supporting tools will be an important part of that process. Existing System dynamics tools greatly facilitate interaction with the user and the design and implementation of qualitative and quantitative models that address levels, rates and trends.

12. Using the Simulation Models for Substantiating the Supply-Stock Decisions
Author: Mihai Păun, Virginia Mărăcine, Ramona Mihaela Păun
Department of Economic Cybernetics,
Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest

        Considering the stochastic character of supply-stock processes, allows the models of stock theory to get closer to the real economic problems. The simulation offers the possibility to analyse, on the basis of certain economic criteria, a great number of variants, with an admissible precision, without making that the decision-making period to become prohibitive. The decision-maker has the possibility to experiment them on simulated systems, before effectively work with the chosen variant within an integrated system of data processing.
        The decision concerning the stock sizing (evaluation) must be made on the basis of certain models which to take into account some parameters, as, for instance: costs, demands per products, supply conditions, inventory, stare etc.
        To this end, the paper analysis certain simulation models based on known models inventory.
        According to the experience gained, the decision-maker can improve the parameters of the supply-stock process since the projecting stage. At the same time, he has the possibility to know for a large time horizon, the covering degree with material resources of a given production plan and to efficiently take certain technical-organizing measures.

13. Decisions in Conditions of Asymmetric Information on the Labor Market
Author: Laura Gabriela Pătru
Institute of Regional Research and Analyze - ICAR SRL, Bucharest

        Symmetric information both parties in a transaction had the same information. In many market transactions one party may possess information not available to the other.
        Asymmetric information a market, or situation, where the buyers have more information about the quality of a product than sellers. Asymmetric information is an inequality of information in which one party to a transaction has information about himself or herself that the other party does not have.
        Market of information it is an imperfect market because the information is not a typical good, meaning that if the seller would allow you to try a good before buying it you wouldn’t buys it anymore.
        Principal-Agent theory Principal-agent theory is concerned with delegated decision-making. A principal P, authorizes an agent A, to take decisions on her behalf. If the interests (preferences) of P and A are identical or if P has complete information about the decisions and their consequences and can perfectly observe A’s choices, there is no difficulty for P in ensuring that A acts in her interest. Principal-agent theory examines situations in which these conditions do not apply. It consider haw far P can induce A to act in P’s interest, mainly (though not exclusively) by design of the contract under which A is employed and paid.
        Economic relationships often have the form of the Principal who contracts with an Agent to take certain actions that the Principal cannot observe directly. The Principal is the owner of the firm and the Agent is the employee. The employee takes actions to further the objective of the Principal, which is to maximize profit.
        The Problem: If the Principal could perfectly monitor what the Agent does, he could make sure the Agent is acting effectively to further the Principal’s interests. However, in general such monitoring is costly and/or impossible. If perfect monitoring is not possible, then the Agent may be able to pursue his or her own objectives, which may be at odds with those of the Principal.
        It is assumed that agents want to spare effort while the principal values more of it. This assumption underlies agents’ incentive for shirking and the ensuing control problem for the principal. An agent would disobey the principal’s order if his policy views differ from the principal’s. Agent’s efforts have been assumed exogenous. The desire to spare effort depends on the parties’ interests. No assumption has been made regarding agent’s preferences. Agents want to maximize their chances of promotion. To achieve this objective the incentives for the agents depends from constraints and from the game rules:
        a.       Activity’s constraints
        b.      Budgetary constraint
        c.      Criteria to select and promote the right people (promotion criteria).

14. Archemic Theory Related to the Cybernetic Systems
Author: Ioana Petcu
S.C. ELECTRICA S.A. Bucharest

        The general theory of archems follows the artificial arhems designing and them integration in reality according to the entropic principle. The archem is an intro-opened system, having conscience and intelligence (natural or artificial); capable to generate innovation by opening through surrender realities and by intro-opening through the depth of material world.
        As type of archems there are natural arhems, having as prototype human element and artificial one made by men. Starting from concept of archem definition it is obviously the arhem theory includ the systems general theory, developed referring to intro-opened systems.
        As practice application of archem general theory are mentioned: creating of new energy source were capable to replace efficiently than the classics ones, degree changing from decision to efficient actions, increasing of civilization to level of human elements.

15. Cybernetic Systems and Artificial Neural Networks
Author: Gabriel Galeţeanu
EUROWEB Romania S.A. Bucharest

        This paper presents a variety of neural network models used in system identification.
        System identification is a process through which one builds a model of a real (cybernetic) system. The neural models presented are based upon the current scientific literature. They represent nonlinear candidate models build upon the basic linear ARX (Autoregressive with External Input), ARMAX (Autoregressive Moving Average with External Input), OE (Output Error), SSIF (State Space Information Form) models.
        The usage of neural networks in system identification takes part in nonlinear alternative modeling. Their principal advantage is the direct applicability on numbers (i.e. when the real system is unknown), with the possibility to simplify the creation of an accurate nonlinear model. The real accuracy of such models is depending on the real data and the intrinsic architecture of the neural network. The modeling process is an interactive one, with trial-and-error mechanisms.
        After presenting the neural alternatives for linear models, we discuss the general algorithm for system identification. Some guidelines for system identification with neural networks are also provided.
KEYWORDS: System identification, Neural networks, Nonlinear modeling

16. Organizational Growth and Consequences of the Inter-Group Conflicts on Decision
Author: Laura Corâci
Training Center
Romanian Commercial Bank, Bucharest

        As work organizations grow in size, one inevitable feature is the shift from a relatively homogeneous structure to one that is much more differentiated. The co-ordination of such specialized activities so as to capitalize on such benefits is, of course, a major management activity. Co-operation between specialist departments is a fundamental requirement for the organization’s effective functioning. Yet managers regularly experience situations where conflict, rather than co-operation, is the order of the day, and where the groups become more committed to their own goals and seek to undermine their rivals’ activities, thereby becoming a liability to the organization as a whole. Management of such conflict through a pro-active strategy can prepare the ground for higher-quality and more effective decisions.

17. The Role of GAP Analysis in Asset & Liability Management and Liquidity Risk Management
Author: Lucian Claudiu Anghel
Romanian Commercial Bank, Bucharest

        The management of balance sheet structure, or asset & liability management is the core of a sound, modern bank. The central objective of this process to stabilize and maximize the spread between interest paid to raise funds and interest earned on the bank’s assets, and at the same time to ensure adequate liquidity and an acceptable level of risk is as old as the banking business itself. The practices, norms, and techniques of asset & liability management have, however, changed substantially in recent years. Moreover, given the complexity and volatility of modern financial markets, the need for good asset & liability management has significantly increased. The adoption of techniques for such management is also a prerequisite for a more integrated approach to managing the risks associated with balance sheet and off-balance-sheet items.
        The key elements that guide decisions in asset & liability management include liquidity, interest rate sensitivity, and pricing. All of these factors are highly interdependent. The cost of funds is the major underlying determinant of pricing, and bankers generally base prices on the average or marginal cost of funds. However, marginal pricing appears to be more attuned to risk management since the funds already on the balance sheet support existing assets.
        The operational aspects of asset & liability management focus around designing the structure of a bank’s balance sheet throughout consecutive interest rate cycles while maintaining an adequate liquidity and risk profile according to GAP analysis. The process of redesigning or repositioning the balance sheet structure is normally forward-looking and based on interest rate forecasts derived from statements of the central bank, published economic or technical literature, market yield curves and/or a bank’s own interest rate forecasting models analyzed by Asset and Liability Committee. The flexibility of a bank’s balance sheet is not perfect, especially in Romanian market environment. Because it can take some time to change the asset portfolio structure, raise alternative sources of funding, and execute the necessary transactions, the repositioning process normally starts even before the next interest rate cycle begins.
        To be effective asset & liability management must be based on clear performance targets and a consistent GAP analysis adapted to specific Romanian environment. Decisions in this area should be made in a coordinated manner and should be effectively executed. This process requires the establishment of a formal institutional structure responsible for asset & liability management.
        The asset & liability management strategy based on GAP analysis and related decisions should take into account all relevant limitations imposed by supervisors and/or potential distractions from our market.
         Although Gap analysis is used in international market especially for asset & liability management, some methodological changes due to different goals of the analyses and the special local economic environment can improve significantly the liquidity, the quality of the research results and implicitly the profits of the bank.
         Liquidity risk management lies in Romania at the heart of confidence in the banking system. The importance of liquidity transcends the individual institution, since a liquidity shortfall at a single institution can have system-wide repercussions. By their very nature, banks all over the world transform the term of their liabilities to have different maturities on the asset side of the balance sheet. At the same time, banks must be able to meet their commitments, such as deposits, at the point when they come due. The contractual inflow and outflow of funds will not necessarily be reflected in actual plans and may vary at different times. A bank may therefore experience liquidity mismatches, making its liquidity policies and liquidity risk management key factors in its business strategy.
        By remodelling the time buckets and forecasting the behaviour of the asset & liability items, GAP analysis can improve the quality of liquidity risk management and the asset & liability management. A quality IT system is a critical matter in this attempt to improve overall banking management, especially on Romanian market. Duality profit-liquidity should be observed all the time and GAP analysis is a very strong tool in this respect.
        The key of the effective results of applying this analysis consists in the quality of remodelling time maturity buckets, which have a tremendous impact on the results. Remodelling can also reduce the costs regarding informational banking flows through deeply analysing the most important 20% of transactions, which represent about 80% of the total volume. In a top Romanian ranked bank, the number of accounts exceeds several millions. Using day by day only one fifth of the volume will automatically improve the net profit and will reduce the redundant/irrelevant information, which can affect the normal flow inside the bank. But the correct remodelling structure of GAP analysis is very important due to consequences on the whole bank activity. An incorrect one can seriously damage all good intention and efforts invested in this research.

18. Currency Risk Management in Trade Finance
Author: Lucian Claudiu Anghel

        Currency risk results from changes in the exchange rates between Romanian domestic currency – ROL- and other currencies. It is a risk of volatility due to a mismatch and it may cause a trader to experience losses as a result of adverse exchange rate movements during a period in which it has an open position, in an individual foreign currency.
        In recent years, a market environment with freely floating exchange rates has practically become the global norm. This has also opened the doors for speculative trading opportunities and increased currency risk.
        The relaxation of exchange controls and the liberalization of cross-border capital movements, which will take effect in Romania in a couple of years, have fuelled a tremendous growth in international financial markets where there are a lot of specific instruments which help trade finance and immunize the future cash-flows. The volume and growth of global foreign exchange trading has far exceeded the growth of international trade and capital flows, and has contributed to greater exchange rate volatility and therefore currency risk.
        Currency risk arises from a mismatch between the value of inflows and outflows payment denominated in different foreign currencies, that generate a mismatch between foreign receivables and foreign payables that are expressed in domestic currency. Such mismatches may exist between both principal and interest due to a bank or other corporate.
        In principle, the fluctuations in the value of domestic currency that create currency risk result from changes in foreign and domestic interest rates that are, in turn, brought about by differences in inflation. Such fluctuations are normally motivated by macroeconomic factors and are manifested over relatively long periods of time, although currency market sentiment can often accelerate recognition of the trend. Other macroeconomic aspects that affect the domestic currency value are the volume and the direction of a country’s trade and the capital flows. Short-term factors, such as expected or unexpected political events, changed expectations on the part of the market participants, including corporate, or speculation-based currency trading, may also give rise to currency changes.
        All these factors can affect the supply and demand for a currency and, therefore, the day-to-day movements of the exchange rate in currency markets.
        The consequences of currency risk may be very important for trade finance and can thereby result in a gain or a loss, depending on the direction of exchange rate shifts. Without an effective currency risk management, by using special financial instruments, the competitiveness of trade finance may be offset by a very important loss and therefore this special type of management must be well used. The banking system also has to support the trade finance needs of their clients. The level of banking sector development interferes with such special trade finance needs. If the banking market can sustain such types of special instruments then the trade finance will have a proper land to grow. Otherwise, in order to sustain the trade finance needs of corporate clients, the banks that act in special economic environments, like Romania, has to develop special services and products for this type of activity.
        The Forward Rate Agreement and SWAP are very powerful tools that unfortunately are not used in Romania by many corporate in trade finance. At this moment this banking product is the only one that helps to immunize cash-flows involved in trade finance. In the near future the National Bank of Romania will issue the guidelines for derivative instruments, but till then the banks have to improve the knowledge of their clients regarding this type of product that manages currency risk.
        The particularities of Romanian banking market altered the characteristics of such types of instruments currently used in international markets. Therefore corporate, which are acting in Romania and are involved in trade finance, are using only particular types of Forward Rate Agreement and SWAP instruments.

19. The Impact of the Arbitrage Opportunities on the Multi-Agent Stock Markets
Author: Mihai Constantin

        Real-world stock markets are quite volatile and express some traits such as overvaluation, underestimation, crashes and cycles. The aim of this paper is to investigate whether the Arbitrage Opportunities (AO) can be used to manage the complexity of the Multi-Agent Stock Markets.
        In this case, stock markets are producing a complex behavior through the interaction of their constituent parts. This is particularly problematic because the individual parts have only a limited view of the whole system.
        The main idea is to make some basic assumptions and then to use the multi-period portfolio selection problem in order to see if realistic quantitative traits of stock market dynamics show up. Then I classify the different types of behavior of agents that emerge in the market as a function of a learning rate and explain these behaviors. The resulting relations would determine a fast market reaction in comparison with the case when the arbitrage is not present.
        Keywords: Arbitrage Return, Cooperation, Coordinating Multiple Agents and Multiple Activities, Learning Rate, Multi Period Portfolio Selection Problem
        JEL Classification: E32, G1, N2

20. The New Economy Recession: the Quantitative Implications of Government Fiscal Policy
Author: Daniel Tatu
Public Notary Office Mircea Mihail

        Now that it is officially acknowledged that a recession has begun, most economists are predicting that it will soon be over. An economic recovery must be driven by some component(s) of demand growing rapidly. It is not clear which sector can drive the economy forward in the near future. Both consumption and investment, which drove the late nineties boom, are likely to remain weak for the foreseeable future. State and local government spending will be a drag on the economy, as these governments are forced to cut spending to keep in line with falling tax revenue.
        Overall, the economists examines the quantitative implications of government fiscal policy in a discrete-time one-sector growth model with a productive externality that generates social increasing returns to scale. They showed that the use of local steady-state analysis to detect the presence of multiple equilibria in this class of models can be misleading. For a plausible range of capital tax rates, the log-linearized dynamical system exhibits saddle-point stability, suggesting a unique equilibrium, while the true non-linear model exhibits global indeterminacy. This result implies that stabilization policies designed to suppress sunspot fluctuations near the steady state may not prevent sunspots, cycles, or chaos in regions away form the steady state, Overall, this results highlight the importance of using a model's nonlinearly equilibrium conditions to fully investigate global dynamics.

21. Chaos and Dynamic System`s Synergy
Authors: Nora Chirită
Department of Economic Cybernetics,
Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest
        Melania Vâlsan
Technical College Edmond Nicolau Bucharest

        The studies on economic systems were totally revaluated because the chaotic system theory that appeared and developed lately and together with this the synergetic conception. So, it is possible to study the unstable behavior of nonlinear economic systems and it is obvious that linear and stable systems are only special cases in the economic evolution.
        The traditional economic dynamics relied on the famous Samuelson`s correspondence theory; according to that principle small disturbances of the system’s parameters causes small changes of the system`s variables. The new point of view, that is now dominant in the economic dynamics, is based on the observation that small changes of the system’s parameters may determine quality changes of the dynamic behavior. So it may change from stable to instable systems, from determinist to chaotic systems, from linear to nonlinear systems.
        This work wants to prove that most of the real economic systems are, actually, chaotic systems. The rational, stable or in equilibrium economic systems are, actually, special cases of chaotic systems.

22. Needs Analysis Model of Export Information System - Customer Centric
Authors: Gheorghe Ogrinja
TG International, Bucharest

        The article presents a comprehensive model to help you build your Export Information System Customer Centric strategy and define the features and functionality to reach buyers, sales teams, and vendors more effectively.
        The architecture of System Customer Centric integrates a number of different technologies, both in the data acquisition and analysis as well as in the creation and maintenance of the many channels to the customer. This means integrating many technologies, groups, and disciplines together to build a successful system. The model offers risk reduction in projects management customer centric by applying a structure and checklist for all to follow.

SECTION

OPERATIONS RESEARCH & APPLIED INFORMATICS

Room: 2623

Chairmen: Prof Vasile NICA PhD
        Prof Csaba FABIAN PhD
        Secretary: Teaching Assistant Anamaria ALDEA

1. Portofolio management performance measurement.
Authors: Virginia Mărăcine, Mihai Păun
Department of Economic Cybernetics,
Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest

        The measurement of portfolio’s performance has double objects: to indicate the managerial performance of our portfolio manager, and to help us in giving precise directions regarding our goals related to certain types of actives we’ve include in the portfolio. Generally, accurate performance evaluation it’s difficult to accomplish. Yet, the portfolio’ theory offer us some tools that we could apply in the field. Present paper deal with few of the measure and they limits.

2. Interactive technique with fuzzy elements for the assembly line balancing problem.
Authors: Carmen Hartulari
Department of Economic Cybernetics,
Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest
Csaba Fabian, Rodica Mihalca
Department of Economic Informatics,
Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest

Keywords: Assembly line, fuzzy data sets, cycle time, balancing, idle time, smooth index
        In this paper the authors propose an interactive algorithm with fuzzy data sets to synchronize an assembly line.
        Due to the phenomenon of globalization, more and more components of a product made on an assembly line are supplied by a different economic agent, be he from the same country or from another.  By this reason the components, of a product may arrive at fuzzy moments at the assembly line, within a certain time interval. We can state that parts produced by a third party arrive around a date X, meaning fairly close to a given due date, with a left and right bound on this date.
        All this considerations leads to different kinds of balancing, witch means different cost, and variable cycle times for the production line.
        Choosing the best alternative with an efficient synchronization for the production line, impose to be able to build specific interactive algorithms to answer efficiently to all these requests.

3. TSP with Transportation and fixed additional payments.
Author: Valeriu Ungureanu
State University of Moldova

        Traveling Salesman Problem (TSP) is a generic name that includes diverse practical models. Motivated by applications, a new model of TSP is examined – a synthesis of classical TSP and classical Transportation Problem. Algorithms based on Integer Programming cutting-plane methods and Branch and Bound Techniques are obvious.
        The TSP gained notoriety over the past century as the prototype of problem that is easy to state and hard to solve practically. It is simply formulated: a traveling salesman has to visit exactly once each of n cities and to return to the start city, but in such order that the respective tour (Hamiltonian cycle) has the minimal total cost (it is supposed that the cost dij of traveling from every city i  to every city j  is known, and satisfy triangle inequality). There are other related formulations of this problem and a lot of methods for their solving [1-5].
         TSP is representative for a large class of problems known as NP-complete combinatorial optimization problems. This class (of NP-complete problems) has an important property that all of them simultaneously has or don’t has polynomial-time algorithms [6]. To date, no one has found efficient (polynomial-time) algorithm for the TSP. But, over the past few years many practical problems of really large size are solved. Thus, at present, a record exactly solved problem (with branch-and-cut algorithm) has 15 112 cities (Applegate, Bixby, Chvatal, and Cook 2001).
        The Transportation Problem is well known classical problem [7]. There are several efficient methods for their solving [8-10].
         TSP with Transportation and Fixed Additional Payments (TSPT) generalizes these two problems.

4. The multicriteria transportation problem.
Author: Alexandra Tcacenko
State University of Moldova

         In this paper it’s proposed the solution methods for a multicriterial transportation problem of a nonlinear type. I would like to note that the problems of this type do not have any classical solution algorithms. This article dealing with 2 objectives, one being non-linear of bottleneck type. Definitions of efficient and extreme efficient solutions are introduced and a separate solution algorithms for these models are described. The possible solution is found and optimized by time. Then, the time is sequentially traded for the cost, thus obtaining the set of all efficient solutions The correctness theorems for the algorithms are proved. Example solved by the computer program implementing the algorithm is included.

5. Main tools, based on combinatorics in mathematical programming problems formulation.
Author: Silviu Bârză
Spiru Haret University, Bucharest         Full paper

        This paper intend to present the main mathematical tools applied in combinatorial optimization problem formulations. For the begin, in first chapter, I present the place of combinatorial optimization problem in linear programming and some examples of classical problem formulation. In second chapter I make a short presentation about feasibility problem and non-deterministic algorithms, some of most important approaches for combinatorial optimization, where most problems are NP-complete. Third and forth chapters are dedicated to optimization in polyhedron, first remembering both way for polyhedron representation and then speaking about integer polyhedrons and unimodular matrix. Last chapter regards matroids and submodular functions, that are also applied in combinatorial optimization problem formulations for which we can found a "nice" algorithms.

6. Dominance in scheduling.
Author: Gheorghe Ciobanu
Department of Economic Cybernetics
Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest

        In the paper, we analyse some dominance conditions and bounds for scheduling problems.

7. Project Scheduling. A Survey of Leading Software Packages.
Author: Iulian Intorsureanu
Department of Economic Informatics,
Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest

8. Case Instruments in Romania using perspectives.
Authors: Ramona Vasilescu
Tibiscus University, Timisoara
        Dorel Sops
S.C. May Software S.R.L., Timisoara

9. Pattern Recognition in Financial and Economic Fields.
Author: Ruxanda Gheorghe
Department of Economic Cybernetics,
Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest

10. Generalized Genetic Mutations for Scheduling and Cutting Stock Problems.
Author: Csaba Fabian
Department of Economic Informatics,
Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest

11. Matlab and revised simplex algorithm.
Author: Dorin Mitrut
Department of Economic Cybernetics
Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest

        Even if the linear programming problem is a old problem and there are already many programs for its solving we can still find problems where the existing programs don’t work well. The aim of this paper is to present one programs destined to work well in the DEA models.

12. Duality for multiobjective continuous programming problems with generalized invexity.
Author: Sorina Gramatovici
Department of Economic Cybernetics,
Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest

        Invexity was defined into mathematical programming by Hanson (1981) to characterize a class of objective and constraint functions for which the Kuhn-Tucker conditions for an optimum were also sufficient. Craven (1981) and Martin (1985) have investigated the relationship between invexity and Kuhn-Tucker conditions, while Ben-Israel and Mond (1986) gave a characterization and some uses of invexity. In Mond, Chandra and Husain (1988) the concept of invexity is extended to continuous functions and it is used to generalize earlier results for a class of variational problems.
        In Mond and Smart (1988) invexity is defined for functionals instead of functions. This has been done so that invexity of a functional H is necessary and sufficient for its critical points to be global minima, which coincides with the original concept of an invex function being one for which critical points are also global minima - Craven and Glover (1981).
        In 1993, Preda considered a generalized -invexity concept for a functional. Generalized invexity, generalized -convexity and generalized -invexity of a function were considered in Craven (1981), Vial (1982, 1983) and Preda (1993).
        Bhatia and Kumar (1995) defined another kind of invexity and discussed the duality for multiobjective control problems with such generalized invexity. Zhian and Qingkai (2001) discussed duality results for miltiobjective control problems with Mond and Smart generalized invexity. Preda and Gramatovici (2002) used generalized invexity for vectorial functions to establish some sufficient optimality conditions for a class of multiobjective variational problems.
        In this paper the duality results for multiobjective continuous programming problems under generalized - invexity assumptions are proved.

13. Some remarks on MIRUP conjecture in one dimensional cutting.
Author: Vasile Nica
Department of Economic Cybernetics,
Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest

        A large number of numerical tests have shown that for many one dimensional cutting stock problems, the integer optimum   is equal to the integer round up of the fractional optimum : . But there exist some problems for which . The statement , for any one dimensional cutting stock problem is known in the literature as MIRUP conjecture (Modified Integer Round Up Property) It was firstly stated in 1992 by Terno and Scheithauer and still remains open.
        Here, we present some new statements on the subject. If these are proved to be true, the above conjecture is solved. They are verified on a large number of cutting problems, seem plausible and more tractable than the original conjecture.

SECTION

APPLIED STATISTICS IN ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING

Room 2605

Chairmen: Prof. Vergil VOINEAGU PhD
Prof. Ion PARTACHI PhD
Secretary: Emilia TITAN

1. Macro econometric analysis of some aspects of the national economy of the Republic of Moldova
Authors: Ion Pârtachi, Natalia Siscan
ASE Chisinău

        Every economic policy consists in the regulation of economic variables. The policy is basen on the knowledge of interindependence and mutual influence of these variables.
        Econometric analysis gives to the politician (investigator) a possibility, on the one hand, to verify theoretical suppositions and assumptions, on the other hand, to give statistical and quantitutive analysis of received correlations of economic variables.
        Our work’s purpose is to view a future state of the national economy on the base of econometric model.
        For this model’s construction, the following macrovariables were taken: Gross Domestic Product, Household Consumption, Investment, Interest rate.
        The model consists of sistem of equations.
        First equation is the Household Consumption which is a function of total income. Second equation is a function of the Investment. Volume of Investment depends from the Interest rate and from effective increase of income which is equal to GDP on macroeconomic level. Third equation is identity GDP and Household Consumption, Investment, Govenrmental Expenses.
        The model was estimated on the date base of 1 quarter 1996 - 4 quarter 2000 year. Because of the factors are seasonal, four dummy variables exists, which accounts the seasonal effect.
        The received results reflect enough adequate the specification of the development of Moldova.

2. Regiunile si dezvoltarea regională în contextul globalizării Author: Gabriela Prelipcean
Universitatea Stefan cel Mare, Suceava

        The typical problems that the Romanian national space has to face, its historical evolution, its social and economical dynamics ask for a policy of specific regional development. From this perspective, we can talk about three categories of objectives: harmonizing with the foresights imposed by the European Union, reducing the regional lack of balance and integrating sector-activities in regional ones in order to achieve a higher level of development.
        This paper discusses the regions and regional development in the main states of the European Union and focuses on the need for a policy of regional development in view of the adhesion to the European Union.

3. Analiza statistică a corelaţiilor dintre elementele componente ale resurselor umnane si alti indicatori macroeconomici (pe exemplul Republicii Moldova)
Author: Irina Oriol
A.S.E. Chisinău

        This work represents a research about the independence of work-resources, macroeconomic indicators and financial resources indicators.
        As a result of the analysis of the correlation coefficients matrix, I have determined those relation that need a greater research emphases. For the measurement of the connection intensity were used the following: the correlation coefficient and correlation rapport, the Durbin-Watson test of the null hypothesis. The factorial influence was analyzed by the use of the elasticity coefficient and the variation degree of the factors mentioned in the model.

4. The assessing of the enterprise by E.F.Q.M.
Author: Luminiţa Pârv
Universitatea George Baritiu, Brasov

        A general measuring method is the assessing of the enterprise. The changing and assessing process is in a tight connection here. The PDCA circle named after Deming signifies the folowings : P(plan)- olanning, D(do)- doing, C(check) checking the results and A(act) improving the results following the checking. Deming’ wheel is continuously rolling by temporary assessing, thus quickening the changing process.
        Daimler Benz AG has become a member of the European Foundation for Quality Management (E.F.Q.M.) since July 1st, 1995, therefor S.C: Rolem SRL has got the same responsabilities.
        The E.F.Q.M. target is increasing the international competition of the European industry. The pattern goes from the idea of the fact that there are two factors for the insurance of the longterm success of the enterprise, i.e. people and processes.
        There are 9 different criteria to be considered for being able to fully describe the performance of the enterprise. All the factors will be in view, the soft ones (e.g.the management) as well as the strong ones (e.g. financial results). Five abilitating criteria (factors) describe how the enterprise is processing and four resulting criteria (the results) describe what the enterprise has achieved.
        The five factors are the managing, the orienting towards the employees, politics and strategy, resources and processes.
        The four results are satisfying the employees, satisfying the clients, social responsability and financial results.

5. The quality improvement by DPV
Author: Luminita Pârv
Universitatea George Baritiu, Brasov

        The quality improvement by DPV procedure is based on the following advantages:
        The involving into the quality improvement is done at all levels:
6. Metode statistice în selectarea setului de portofolii eficiente
Authors: Vergil Voineagu, Dan Traian Pele, Cristina Mitrut
Department of Statistics and Economic Forecasting
Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest

7. Aspecte metodologice referitoare la fuziunea de fisiere de informatii statistice
Authors: Vergil Voineagu, Dan Traian Pele, Cristina Trandas
Department of Statistics and Economic Forecasting
Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest

8. The Impact of the Romania’s Economic Integration in E.U on the Labor Force Domain in the Territorial Profile
Author: Andreea Iluzia Iacob
Department of Statistics and Economic Forecasting
Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest

        The objective of this paper represents the analysis of the way in which the economic integration in EU of Romania will affect the regional specialization and the localization of the industrial activity in the labor force domain.
        In order to realize this study it was created a database including regional indicators concerning employment corresponding to 13 industrial branches (conform NACE classification) and to the 41 counties corresponding to NUTS III level in Romania for the period 1991-1999.
        The analysis of regional specialization development and geographical concentration of industries for the 41 counties of Romania (NUTS III level) for 1991-1999 it was realized by calculating three indexes. As a measure of absolute specialization in regions and for the geographical concentration of industries it was chosen Herfindahl index. Krugman (dissimilarity) index and Gini coefficient were taken as measures of relative specialization in the regions and for geographical concentration of industries.
        For each specialization and concentration index it was built a trend model using panel data. The trend model was estimated for every specialisation and concentration index with common intercept (Pooled OLS), fixed effect (FEM) and random effect model (REM) using the EViews programme. In the case of all models it was tested the existence of the heteroskedasticity phenomena using White test. In order to choose between common intercept (Pooled OLS) and fixed effects (FEM) model it was used F-statistic and between FEM and REM it was used Hausman test.
        Finally, it was analysed the way in which varied the level of regional specialization and geographical concentration of manufacturing in Romania based on the estimation results.

9. The Statistically Analysis of the Relationsheep Between Regional Specialization and Growth of Romania in the Territorial Profile
Author: Andreea Iluzia Iacob
Department of Statistics and Economic Forecasting
Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest

        The objective of this paper is to determine the regional factors that account for regional diversification and economic growth of Romania. For this purpose it was built an econometric model in which regional growth it was regressed on the specialization measure and a group of regional indicators corresponding to the 41 counties (NUTS III level) of Romania for the period 1993-1998.
        In order to realize this study it was created a database including a group of regional indicators corresponding to the 41 counties (NUTS III level) of Romania for the period 1993-1998.
        Before deciding the final form of the model for NUTS III regions we checked for multicolinearity among the independent variables by calculating simple correlation coefficients between the dependent and independent variables and between the independent variables and tested the significance of correlation coefficients with t-statistic, and the higher correlated variables were eliminated form the model. The model using panel data was estimated with common intercept (Pooled OLS) and fixed effect (FEM) using White Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Standard Errors & Covariance with the EViews programme. In order to choose between common intercept (Pooled OLS) and fixed effects (FEM) model it was used F-statistic, under the hypothesis that all intercepts are equal.
        Finally, it was analysed the influence of regional specialisation and of the regional indicators used in the model on the economic growth of Romania based on the estimation results.

10. Structural Employment Changes in Romania
Authors: Daniela Luminiţa Constantin, Zizi Goschin, Cornelia Pârlog
Department of Statistics and Economic Forecasting
Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest

        The imbalances existing before 1990 with regard of the use of labour resources by county, area (urban-rural) and by gender have deepened during the transition period as a result of the major decline in investment, production, export, of the restructuring process and technological changes in economic activities, seriously influencing human resources employment level, especially various socio-professional categories, vulnerable to structural economic changes.
        Between 1990 and 2000 employment diminished with 2,2 million people whereas employment rate decreased with 19 percent
        The evolution of labour resources has been influenced by demographic changes such as: an accelerated fertility decrease and maintaining mortality at a high level, emigration increase (especially in 1990-1992). These changes contributed to increasing the share of 60 year old and over population and to maintaining a high demographic dependency ratio, especially in rural areas. As regards the emigration, population of working age recorded the highest share (2/3 to 3/4 of total emigrants) between 1990-2000
        Even though a decrease in total population has been recorded an overall activity rate increase (higher for men) was noticed until 1997; then, the economic decline and rapid restructuring induced a decrease in the activity rate
        In the same context the share of employment in total population has been correlated with the variation of the intensity of restructuring and reform process in different domains as well as with the important decrease in total population. Thus, the share of employment in total population was 46,7% in 1990, 41,8% in 1995, 48,3% in 1996, 49,1% in 1997, 48,2% in 1998, 47,9% in 1999 and 48,0% in 2000.

11. Statistical Methods for Marketing Studies
Authors: Emilia Titan, Cristina Trandas
Department of Statistics and Economic Forecasting
Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest
Aurora Gherghina
The Regional Office of Labour, Vâlcea

        Advertising professionals and marketing specialists realize that the heart of any campaign is the product and the position it holds in people's minds. Understanding the complexities of a brand identity and its position is no easy task. The keys elements of marketing process are:

        - a deep understanding of the market
        - creative segmentation and selection
        - powerfull differentiation, positioning and branding

        In this paper, we made a short presentation of market segmentation problem, one of the most important concepts in marketing.
        Because the romanian consumers are different in many ways, a solution for increasing the company profitability could be a segmenting approach of the marketing activity.
Key words: marketing, market segmentation, data analysis, classification

12. Management of banks’ international lending
Author: Aniela Raluca Danciu
Department of Statistics and Economic Forecasting
Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest

        Lending involves a number of risks. In addition to risk related to the credit worthiness of the borrower, there are others including funding risk, interest rate risk, clearing risk, and foreign exchange risk. International lending also involves country risk.
        This paper deals solely wihh the country risk of international lending.

SECTION

FEED-BACK CONTROL IN ECONOMICS, SOCIAL AND ECOLOGIC STRUCTURES

Room 2620

Chaiman: Prof. Gheorghe OPRESCU PhD
Prof. Mihai PĂUN PhD
Secretary: Senior Lecturer Mihai ROMAN PhD

1. A Model of Transfrontier Pollution
Authors: Mihai Roman
Department of Economic Cybernetics
Monica Roman
Department of Economic Statistics
Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest

        In this model we present the economic effects of transfrontier pollution. This model shows that rich countries specialize in clean goods production, and poor countries accept to produce dirty goods. The mean countries will produce both types of goods.

2. Behavioral basic laws of households’consumptionm and saving in inflation
Authors: Oprescu Gheorghe, Andrei Ana, Marinescu Daniela
Department of Economic Cybernetics
Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest

        In the paper we intend to expose the behavioral mechanisms of the individual householders generated by an important factor like price rise. We identified the behavioral laws that cannot be obtained using a heuristic and direct judgment.
        În lucrare ne propunem să identificăm mecanismele de comportament ale gospodăriilor individuale indus de un factor important, cum ar fi cresterea preturilor si sa identificăm legităti care nu pot fi obtinute printr-un raţionament direct, euristic.

3. The impact of environment protection policies on optimal decision for firms
Authors: Andrei Ana, Dumitru Marin, Oprescu Gheorghe, Marinescu Daniela
Department of Economic Cybernetics
Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest

        The present article analyses a model of optimal business development taking into account the need to protect the environment. The paper is structured in three parts: the first part presents the model, while the second and the third part study the optimal evolutions of the business in the case of expensive loans and in the conditions of a moderate or strict environmental policy on the part of the state.

4. Decisional Aspects in Production Systems with Risk Elements
Authors: A. Baractari, A. Godonoagă
ASE, Chisinău

        A mathematic model with a stochastic character is proposed, the objective of which expresses the eventual net profit of the producer. Factors that may lead to a risk situation are represented through supply of resources and demand for goods and services provided. As a result, a non-differentiable model is obtained for whose solution a direct algorithm of stochastic programming is proposed.

5. Regions and regional development regarding Romanian adhesion to the European Union
Author: Gabriela Prelipcean
Stefan cel Mare University, Suceava

        The typical problems that the Romanian national space has to face, its historical evolution, its social and economical dynamics ask for a policy of specific regional development. From this perspective, we can talk about three categories of objectives: harmonizing with the foresights imposed by the European Union, reducing the regional lack of balance and integrating sector-activities in regional ones in order to achieve a higher level of development.
        This paper discusses the regions and regional development in the main states of the European Union and focuses on the need for a policy of regional development in view of the adhesion to the European Union.

6. The assessing of the enterprise by E.F.Q.M.
Author: Luminita Pârv
George Baritiu University, Brasov

        A general measuring method is the assessing of the enterprise. The changing and assessing process is in a tight connection here. The PDCA circle named after Deming signifies the folowings : P(plan)- olanning, D(do)- doing, C(check) checking the results and A(act) improving the results following the checking. Deming’ wheel is continuously rolling by temporary assessing, thus quickening the changing process.
        Daimler Benz AG has become a member of the European Foundation for Quality Management (E.F.Q.M.) since July 1st, 1995, therefor S.C: Rolem SRL has got the same responsabilities.
        The E.F.Q.M. target is increasing the international competition of the European industry. The pattern goes from the idea of the fact that there are two factors for the insurance of the longterm success of the enterprise, i.e. people and processes.
        There are 9 different criteria to be considered for being able to fully describe the performance of the enterprise. All the factors will be in view, the soft ones (e.g.the management) as well as the strong ones (e.g. financial results). Five abilitating criteria (factors) describe how the enterprise is processing and four resulting criteria (the results) describe what the enterprise has achieved.
        The five factors are the managing, the orienting towards the employees, politics and strategy, resources and processes.
        The four results are satisfying the employees, satisfying the clients, social responsability and financial results.

7. Partial Equilibrium on the goods market
Author: Stelian Stancu
Department of Economic Cybernetics,
Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest

        In this article we present static stabiliby and dynamic stability for Walrasian equlibrium and Marshall equilibrium. The partial equilibrium is obtained for one product market. We present also a software program which solve different stability situations.

8. Applications of the subtle spaces in risk theory,
Authors: Marcel Stoica, Ion Ionită
Department of Economic Efficiency
Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest

        To evaluate the dimension of a bankruptcy risk in a firm we can define a subtle space with the dimension of the risk as main feature, which we can establish if we know the influence factors and the way they combine. If we can determine the winning chances of the organizations, then sorting them by the bankruptcy risk can be done after the difference between the winning chance and the risk, ordered ascendant.
        Next, we analyze the possibilities to reduce the number of organizations with high bankruptcy risk, that begins with proposal of measures to modify those influence factors that generate high risk or low winnings. The forecast of the obtained effects as result of these measures can be realized with an operator known in the subtle spaces theory as A- operator. The main effect of the operator is, as will be presented, the decrease of the risk.

9. Remarks on virtual companies management
Authors: Ion Naftanaila, Ionel Naftanaila
Department of Management
ASE, Bucharest

SECTION

MATHEMATICAL ECONOMICS

Room 2710

ChairmenProf. Gheorghe Cenusă PhD
Prof. Veronica Burlacu PhD
Secretary: Lecturer Cristian Neculăescu PhD Candidate

1. Robust Multivariate Estimations Applied in Statistical Data Analysis.
Author: Aida Toma
Department of Mathematics
Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest

2. Linearized Non-Homogeneous Credibility Estimators in Hierarchical Models.
Author: Virginia Atanasiu
Department of Mathematics
Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest

3. Improvement of Teaching and Learning for Economical Sciences using Specialized Mathematical Software.
Authors: Gheorghe Cenusă, Constantin Raischi, Cristian Neculăescu, Ovidiu Veghes
Department of Mathematics
Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest

4. An Application of Subexponential in Insurances.
Author: Mircea Iulian
Department of Mathematics
Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest

5. On the Optimization of Deterministic Stocks.
Author: Nicolae Stremţan
Department of Mathematics
Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest

6. On a Minimum Distance Problem of Tudor Zamfirescu.
Author: Laurentiu Modan
Department of Mathematics
Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest

7. On a Stock and Production Optimization Problem.
Authors: Stefan Mirică
University of Bucharest
Faculty of Mathematics
Cristian Neculăescu
Department of Mathematics
Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest

8. Iterative Majoration an Alternative in Optimization. Applications in Data Analysis.
Author: Sorin Baz
Department of Mathematics
Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest

9. A Hierarchical Method for Determining Suitable Portfolios.
Authors: Corina Irimiea
Banca Comercială Română, Bucharest.
Ovidiu Veghes
Department of Mathematics
Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest

10. Lotteries.
Author: Mihaela Covrig
Department of Mathematics
Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest